Expanding UK airports won’t deliver economic growth
New Economics Foundation calls on Treasury to publish evidence of growth benefits so they can be examined
22 January 2025
Responding to the news that chancellor Rachel Reeves is considering approving airport expansions including Heathrow, the New Economics Foundation (NEF) has found that expanding the UK’s airports won’t deliver serious economic growth to the country.
Dr Alex Chapman, NEF senior economist, said:
“Expanding our airports will not produce the economic growth that Rachel Reeves so desperately wants. The government’s plan suggests they haven’t done their homework, or they would know that more airport capacity will not bring us benefits either from more business travel or money from international tourists. Business use of air travel has collapsed, and the UK is sending three times as many tourists out of the country as it is bringing in.
“Airport expansion is also completely incompatible with the government’s aim to be a climate leader. Aviation has no short-to-medium term solutions for its carbon footprint. The UK can’t become part of President Trump’s big back-track on climate.”
New NEF analysis conducted today has found that in 2023, £41bn left the country, due to UK tourists spending more abroad than foreign tourists spent when visiting the UK. Meanwhile, NEF research published yesterday (Tuesday 21 January 2025) found that, despite overall air passenger departures growing by 26m in the past two decades:
- There has been no net increase in business passengers, meaning the UK saw no business benefit.
- Incoming foreign tourists were outnumbered three‑to‑one by UK residents travelling abroad on their holidays, and spending money overseas.
- Of the extra journeys taken, almost two-thirds were taken by UK-resident frequent flyers, who make up a tiny minority of the UK population.
Previously, NEF research also found that the boom in air travel during the four years before the pandemic lockdowns (2015 – 2019) failed to increase either gross domestic product (GDP) or UK productivity. The market share of business passengers has halved from one in six passengers travelling for business in 2006 to one in 12 by 2022. In 2019, £32bn left the UK in 2019 through more UK tourists travelling abroad than foreign tourists visiting.
Notes
The New Economics Foundation is a charitable think tank. We are independent of political parties and committed to being transparent about how we are funded.
Please contact NEF for a full briefing of evidence challenging the economic case for aviation expansion in the UK.
NEF research from Tuesday 21 January 2025 can be found at https://neweconomics.org/2025/01/airport-expansion-would-cancel-out-carbon-savings-of-clean-power-plan
Previous NEF research challenging the economic case for airport expansion can be found at https://neweconomics.org/2023/07/losing-altitude
