Airport expansion would wipe out carbon savings of government’s clean power plan

Approving the expansion of Heathrow, Luton and Gatwick airports would wipe out the benefits of the government’s clean power plan (CPP) within five years of expanded operation, analysis by the New Economics Foundation (NEF) has found.

The UK government has said it wants to be a global climate leader, announcing ambitious new emissions reduction commitment at Cop29. NEF analysis suggests the CPP, which would deliver a zero-carbon electricity system in 2030 instead of the 2035 date targeted by the previous government, would reduce UK carbon emissions by up to 65m tonnes.

Researchers at NEF have found that approving the expansion of the airports would create 65m tonnes of additional carbon-equivalent emissions within five years of expanded operation, wiping out the savings made through the CPP.

Analysis from NEF also finds that the potential for economic growth from airport expansions has been overstated. Despite overall air passenger departures growing by 26m in the past two decades:

• None of the new passengers were travelling for business purposes, meaning the UK had little business benefit.
• Incoming foreign tourists were outnumbered 3‑to‑1 by UK residents travelling abroad on their holidays, and spending money overseas.
• Almost two-thirds of new airport capacity was captured by UK-resident frequent flyers, who make up a tiny minority of the UK population.

Dr Alex Chapman, senior economist at NEF, said:

“If the rumours are true and Reeves intends to try and use airport expansion to drive growth, then her advisors haven’t done their homework. Despite huge growth in passenger numbers there hasn’t been a single additional business air passenger for two decades, and the number of incoming tourists created by airport expansion is vastly outnumbered by the number of UK residents travelling out of the country.

Encouraging household spending to fly overseas isn’t remotely helpful for economic growth, nor the balance of the UK’s regional economies.

The proposal is also incredibly short-sighted, the massive climate damage caused by these schemes will create deep physical and economic hardship for millions and will wipe out any benefit from the government’s other climate policy efforts almost overnight.”

Notes

The briefing can be found at https://​newe​co​nom​ics​.org/​2​0​2​5​/​1​/​a​i​r​p​o​r​t​-​e​x​p​a​n​s​i​o​n​-​w​o​u​l​d​-​c​a​n​c​e​l​-​o​u​t​-​c​a​r​b​o​n​-​s​a​v​i​n​g​s​-​o​f​-​c​l​e​a​n​-​p​o​w​e​r​-plan

• NEF’s lower estimate of the climate benefit of the CPP (46m tonnes) is derived from analysis of the government’s Net Zero Delivery Plan. NEF’s upper estimate (65m tonnes) is derived from analysis of the National Grid’s Future Energy Scenarios.
• Base airport scheme carbon impacts at London City, Luton and Gatwick are derived from figures presented by the airports in planning application documents. Additional analysis has been conducted by NEF to align these estimates with DfT impact assessment guidance. Impacts for Heathrow airport expansion derive from Department for Transport (DfT) analysis from 2017, updated by NEF to account for developments in efficiency and policy since then.
• Airport emissions impacts already take account of future efficiency improvements and the impact of alternative fuels on the carbon intensity of air travel, as set out in the government’s Jet Zero Strategy.
• As-per DfT Transport Analysis Guidance (TAG), the emissions of both outbound (departing) and inbound (arriving) flights are considered.
• As-per Department for Energy Security and Net Zero guidance, a multiplier of 1.7x is used to adjust aviation carbon emissions for the climate impact of non-carbon gases emitted by airplanes at high altitude. As such, aviation emissions are presented as ​‘CO2e’ ie. carbon dioxide-equivalent emissions.